Obama: Should blacks run down hill or walk?

There is a rather crude joke that goes something like this. There were two bulls on top of a hill overlooking several cows. The young bull, in his immature exuberance, suggested to the older bull that they run down and “Do” one of the cows. The older bull, in his wisdom, then responded by saying; “No, lets walk down and “Do” them all!”. That is the difference between wisdom/self control and immaturity/lack of self control. Its the difference between understanding the big picture, how things work, and having a strategy versus ignoring the big picture, ignoring how things work, and having no strategy except what feels good (the idea of a black president).

I am reminded of that when I hear many black folks reject reasons for not supporting Obama, this time around. In some (many) black folk’s immature and uncontrolled excitement over having the first black president, they are losing sight of political strategy. We want to run down the hill and “Do” them all. Wiser black folks, however, realize that winning the Democratic primary is not the same as winning the presidency, no matter how much George Bush and the Republicans have screwed up. It’s not a forgone conclusion that a Democrat is going to win the White House. The democrats will have to win the South to win the presidency and the South is too traditional, still, to elect a Northern Liberal black or women (Damn Yankees).

Do folks remember when Ralph Nader ran for president as an Independent/Green Party Canidate and some democrates voted for him, instead of Gore? What a great strategy that was. Folks exuberant about Nadar ran down hill, by voting for Nader, and instead of getting to "do" some cows....they got "Done" by Bush. The question is do blacks have more to gain by voting for a black in the primaries or more to lose by Republicans winning the general election? In a head to head match-up with Republican front runners, polls suggest that Obama does the worse and Edwards the best. If Obama ranks the least against Republicans, and the ultimate goal is to defeat the Republicans, then blacks should be voting for the democrat who has the highest rating against the top republicans....call me stupid...and aint Obama. Winning the democratic nomination is not winning the presidency! We must understand the opportunity cost of voting for Obama in the primaries

If the economy goes to hell (which is highly probable), during the 4 years of the next president, who will get blamed, what will be the benefit/cost of having a black president? Certainly in such a climate of whites losing jobs, wealth and status, Affirmative Action, monies targeted towards issues acute with blacks, programs and the like are out the window as a result of resentful whites. Unless there is targeted assistance to the black community for its disproportionate socioeconomic problems, those problems will remain disproportionate. A declining economy slams the door on such targeting because white who are hurting economically will fervently reject such policies in a representative, majority rule political construct in which they are the majority. That’s just fact and they have been aggressively fighting against AA in good times.

That noted, the worst thing to do in an economic downturn is to raise taxes, which would be the only way to fund the social programs needed to fix many acute problems in the black community. Moreover, with the unfunded liabilities of Medicaid, Medicare social security and decreased revenues due the retirement of baby boomers, the government is essentially broke, busted and disgusted and now cannot be trusted (to deliver needed social policy) and meet its liabilities. It is already 9 trillion dollars in debt. Maybe the next president can cut the budget of the Military industrial complex? Yeah right. So much of our economic GDP is tied to military expenditures that such a move would cripple the economy further. However, that is a moot point because politicians will protect military jobs for their district and will not vote for a cut in funding that will make things worse in their districts economically.

So the only real benefit of a black president would be so black youth can dream that they can one day be president, despite being black, and white folks can feel that they have been vindicated from the accusation that this is a racist nation. But how many black youth are going to be inspired by a president under constant attack for apparent incompetence as he gets blamed for the economic misfortunes that manifest under his rein? Like I said, I watched Detroit’s Black political leadership get blamed for the decline of “the D”, while folks conveniently ignored the decline in the Auto Industry and its disinvestment in the city. Some folks do not believe in the ability of black folks to govern as they blame all of Africa’s and all the other poor black countries fate of incompetent and corrupt black leaders. When America falls economically and a black president is in office, who the hell do you think is going to get the blame? When whites folks are in charge and something gets messed up, their race is not blamed. When black folks are in charge and something gets messed up, it reflects back on all of us. I did not make that up...that is just how it has been....unfortunately. Yet, black folks want to run down hill in their exuberance, not totally thinking this thing through. It’s really short sighted.

Call me crazy, but when the economy and this nations tanks, I don’t want the first black president sitting in the oval office, even if he had the chance to win. I want the same people who created this mess to be sitting there getting the blame for this mess….and its not black leadership or people. For me...its seems too risky for black Democrates to put their money on Obama....and risk another 4 more years under Republican leadership, when other Democrates are polled as having a much better chance at winning the General election. If black Democrates feel that there is a reason a good strong reason why they vote Democrat and not Republican....then the act of voting for Obama makes little sense....lest it not matter whether a Republican or Democrat is in the White House.

Are blacks like me ready for a black president? That is the wrong question for a brother like me. There are some 40 million black folks in America. I am more concerned about the collective reality and well being of those 40 million than I am the occupation of a single black person. If I trusted that a black could actually become president in 2008 and that such would translate to improvement of the collective of 40 million blacks....then yes....I am ready. If a black person is to become president and have no net benefit for the 40 million collective or he gets blamed and labeled incompetent for a crashing economy.....then answer is no.....I am not ready.

The problem is that the two Party system does not work for America any longer. The binary options are woefully incompetent in meeting the needs of a diverse range on interest and beliefs that must somehow map to one of the two options for viability. Americans are not that cut and dried, either or, to be conveniently separated between democrats and republicans. But as long as we have this incompetent two Party construct, voters must compromise by often not picking their favorite candidate, but picking the candidate that strategically has the best chance to win in the two party system. The two party system means that people rarely get the candidate that they really want. However they strategize and comprise to get the candidate that can keep the other side out of office. The republicans have been better and realizing this than Democrats and that is why Republicans have reined in office longer than the Democrats lately.